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September, 2018

VALUE PLUS MOMENTUM INVESTING
by LARRY

Studies have shown that combining value and momentum investment strategies can on average increase annual returns from 3-7% annually. Still, past experience is no guarantee of future returns. I have high hopes for the approaches mentioned below, yet they are experimental. The methods makes sense and have worked out well for us thus far, but try them at your own risk.


  1. Each four weeks, for instance (though the regular interval could vary, for example every week or every quarter), put a new buy order in at the close of trading on Monday (or the first day of trading that week, if the exchanges are closed for a Monday holiday). Invest in a single value + momentum stock not already held that statistically stands a better than even chance of going up and meets the guidelines of a good value and price performance stock screen.

  2. Sell stocks after held five weeks, if they are then up 20% or more, or when they no longer qualify under the buy criteria, replacing them with new stocks (not in the portfolio) that meet the buy criteria. If during the hold period a stock goes down 10% or more, yet still meets the guidelines per #1, buy more shares. Then the new sell price target will be 20% above one's average cost basis. To avoid wash sale rule violations, use a tax-deferred account for these trades, or do not purchase the same stock within 5 weeks of previously selling it when there had been a loss before.

  3. Invest a fixed amount each four weeks (or week, quarter, etc.). If one's available funds and income allow for setting aside, say, $5000 every four weeks to invest in stocks, that could be the approximate dollar amount used for each of the strategy purchases.

  4. For most of our value plus momentum investing, I use the Motley Fool CAPS screener and these selection guidelines from among its variables:
    a. CAPS ratings 4 or 5;
    b. All-Star outperform picks 25 or above;
    c. 52-week price change 100% or above;
    d. EPS Growth Rate in the last 3 years 37.5% or above;
    e. Revenue Growth Rate in the last 3 years 37.5% or above.

    (If sometimes every stock meeting these standards is already held, has been sold within the past 5 weeks, or otherwise was redeemed in a way or an account that contraindicates a new purchase at this time, then no additional investment occurs yet for the current portfolio rebalancing.)

  5. Assuming this approach is as profitable for you as it has been for us, just repeat indefinitely.


Since the screen tends to pick volatile assets, and inevitably there will be times when the portfolio, or at least some of its stocks, go down, one might begin value plus momentum investing with a healthy reserve of money market or other short-term bond reserves. When dips occur, they can be drawn on for replenishing the portfolio. Yet when there are profits, they can be harvested and added to a hopefully growing stash of cash-like funds.

After this portion of the overall holdings reaches more than 50% of the total portfolio, new stock investment amounts can be raised. For instance, if the portfolio were kept at 5 stocks and the value of reserves were now roughly equal to the total equity market value, each new equity purchase would be for about 10% of the total (of stocks plus reserves).



To illustrate, a portfolio that might have begun with $25,000 in stocks ($5000 each times five) plus $12,500 in reserves, $37,500 altogether, but with the reserves having increased through "harvesting" the stock profits to now being worth $35,000, i.e. $60,000 altogether, the allocations could gradually be adjusted so the reserves portion were $30,000 as investments in new stocks were raised to $6000 each ($30,000 for the entire equity portion), and so maintaining thereafter an approximate equivalence between the equity and reserves parts of the total portfolio.


These stocks met the above buy criteria as of this writing (9/18/18):

Value Stocks With Good Price Performance
CompanyTicker
Symbol
Recent
Price
52-Week
Price
Change
3-Year
Revenue
Growth
3-Year
EPS
Growth
GrubHub, Inc.GRUB$143.60+165%+39%+156%
Okta, Inc.OKTA$69.87+138%+85%+67%
Paycom Software, Inc.PAYC$157.69+110%+42%+211%
The Trade Desk, Inc.TTD$144.73+138%+91%+443%
Twilio, Inc.TWLO$85.38+171%+65%+55%


Risk-averse investors may wish to balance their portfolios, so there is less overall instability, by maintaining a roughly equal or 1/3 portion in each of: 1. good quality dividend-paying securities; 2. value plus momentum assets; and 3. money market reserves.

If so, there are a number of investment services, usually including one's brokerage company, that can give a list of fine choices among stocks that have financial strength as well as higher than average dividends. Here are a few of the latter which currently look promising:

Good Quality Dividend Stocks
CompanyTicker
Symbol
Recent
Price
Annual
Dividend
Yield
AT&TT$33.725.93%
Infosys Ltd., ADRINFY$10.144.32%
Gilead Sciences, Inc.GILD$73.663.10%
Royal Dutch Shell plc, ADRRDS/B$68.095.52%
Verizon Communications, Inc.VZ$54.404.43%

Best of luck with your own well balanced and profitable investing portfolios.



DISCLAIMER

Larry is not a professional. Don't take him seriously!

Actually, the investment article provided here is for general information only and should not be considered as professional advice, a solicitation to buy or sell any security, or the Word of God. Investors are encouraged to do their own research while considering their personal goals and circumstances, or consult their own professional financial advisors, before making investment decisions. Neither Larry nor LARVALBUG will be liable for any losses sustained by any visitor to this site.

(Disclosure statement: Larry and Val have holdings in some of the suggested assets but do not "make a market" in any of them and do not derive any direct benefit from recommending them, except perhaps for a bit of smug self-satisfaction.)



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