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5. Sit down and do not have an anxiety attack, but now multiply the amount from #4 by twenty. In the example above, our average, hypothetical couple will need 20 times $30,000 = $600,000, over and above whatever they might receive from employer or federal retirement benefits, to live a comfortable lifestyle in retirement. Why so high? Three reasons:
- First, given the normal downs and ups of the markets, only a small percentage of one's nest egg can be used for expenses each year, or one will quickly run through all one's resources. Suppose there were a major downturn in the equity markets soon after retirement, as indeed happened with me (twice) and with many others over the past few years. Maybe one started with $300,000, which became $200,000 after 2002 and $125,000 after 2008. Even with modest annual gains later, if one were to take one's needed $30,000 or so a year out of that net asset value, everything would probably be gone in less than five years.
- Second, while we of course cannot be certain of it, life expectancy after retiring can be longer than in one's primary career. About a third of women who retire at 65 live on to 90 or older. One needs a nest egg large enough to provide income for a sufficient duration. It is all "well and good," in one sense, if a nest egg of half a million bucks has been set aside and then one drops dead the year after retirement. One's heirs, at least can benefit. However, far worse is the situation of someone who outlives her or his resources only a few years after retirement. One hears horror stories of old people living without heat in winter or AC in summer, even sharing a pet's vittles, to just get by from one monthly Social Security check to the next because they burned through their nest eggs early and then still lived on many more years.
- Finally, inflation is a grim fact of life most of the time, and even modest levels of it can make a huge dent in one's buying power. At an average 3% a year inflation rate, a dollar's worth of initial buying power is worth only 54.38 cents after 20 years. With as much debt as many, and not least the federal government, are carrying these days, inflation could well be higher than 3% in subsequent years. Once again, if not careful about offsetting the incursions of inflation, a retiree could be sharing the dog's or cat's food in a couple decades.
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