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Caveat: Given that Valerie and I are with this one completing a milestone of having done 275 consecutive monthly newsletters and have decided to quit while we are ahead, so this is our final issue, I have glanced again through the investment essays done since the outset, in 1996, for what appears to be the best risk-adjusted strategy of the entire period, have tweaked it just a bit based on the latest data, and can say now that, for those concerned about wide swings in the market, the following Foolproof Investing System, if I had to recommend just one, is likely to be as rewarding as, and probably less volatile for long-term money management than, either the method described above or simply using exchange traded funds to mimic the equity markets:
-Allocate most of one's initial investment funds to 30% each in Vanguard's Health Care Fund (VGHCX) or exchange traded health care fund (VHT), Vanguard's S&P Small-Cap 600 ETF (VIOO), and the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP);
-Allocate an initial 10% cushion of reserves to one of the Vanguard money market funds, for instance, Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX).
For each of the first three of those assets, invest initially, however, only when the mutual fund's or ETF's price is at least 7% below its 52-week high. (Currently that condition is met for VIOO alone among those three, so for the rest dollars would be left in the money market account till their prices also have dropped sufficiently, as they had temporarily done just this past December.) On average such drops typically occur at least annually. Once the indicated allocation is established for all four funds or ETFs, add to one's investments (in roughly the same allocations) with at least 5% of the beginning investment amount per year. (Thus, if investing $10,000 at first, $500 or more would be added within each 12-month period thereafter.) Subject to a minimum transaction threshold, rebalance to restore the intended (initial) allocations annually or when one or more of the equity assets falls or rises by at least 10% relative to its intended allocation level, whichever occurs first. (So, if for example VHT were to reach 33% or more, or fall to 27% or less, of the total portfolio, this would trigger a rebalance, unless it meant movement of funds below a requisite amount, say $500 for instance.) While nothing is certain about the future in investing, historically this approach if maintained for the long-term would have served one very well.
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